We end the day much as we started: all the election results are in, but the precise nature of the Government is still very much to be determined. This afternoon both Gordon Brown and David Cameron have laid out their initial negotiating positions on how they may form a Government. Gordon Brown appeared to concede that Labour will be the second choice partner for the Liberal Democrats, while David Cameron made what he described as a “big, open and comprehensive offer” to work with the Liberal Democrats to form a national government.

In light of the Labour and Conservative announcements, however Nick Clegg may choose to remain silent given the imminent negotiations that are reported to have begun.

A Conservative – Liberal Democrat coalition would command 364 seats, a working majority in normal circumstances.  However these circumstances are far from normal.  Cameron has now set out the issues on which he believes he could work with the Liberal Democrats, including the ‘pupil premium’, creating a low carbon economy and protecting civil liberties.

But serious stumbling blocks remain, including Europe, immigration and defence as well as the totemic issue of electoral reform.  These could still result in a second round of negotiations to form a Lib-Lab pact, or a minority Conservative administration. Gordon Brown, or perhaps a successor, will be waiting in the wings to join in.

Election 2010  has perhaps destroyed the myth of universal national swing. The early result of Washington and Sunderland West saw a swing of 11.6% in a Labour heartland seat, a result which, if it had been repeated nationally,  would have given Cameron a healthy lead.  But this was not to be, in the party’s target seats, notably in London, they achieved far smaller swings or even lost ground.  

The Liberal Democrats had a similarly see-saw night, winning Redcar from Vera Baird with a whopping 21.8% swing but failing to fulfil any of the hopes they will have had.

As the negotiations continue, this weekend will be a long time in politics.

While it is clear that this Election will result in the first hung Parliament since 1974, the precise nature of the Government is still very much to be determined. This afternoon both Gordon Brown and David Cameron have laid out their initial negotiating positions on how they may form a Government. Gordon Brown appeared to concede that Labour will be the second choice partner for the Liberal Democrats, while David Cameron made what he described as a “big, open and comprehensive offer” to work with the Liberal Democrats to form a national government.

It is possible that the Liberal Democrats will make a further statement this afternoon, in light of the Labour and Conservative announcements, however Nick Clegg may choose to remain silent given the imminent negotiations that are set to take place.

Key points from Gordon Brown’s statement at 12.45pm

-          Respects the right of the Liberal Democrats to talk to the Conservatives about forming a Government.

-          Should talks between Clegg and Cameron “come to nothing” he would be willing to see any of the Party leaders

-          In any discussions with the Liberal Democrats, Brown emphasised that he would be willing to discuss with Clegg the areas where there may be some measurement of agreement which he stated were: plans to secure continuing economic stability and plans to carry through political reforms including the voting system

-          There needs to be immediate legislation on electoral reform to restore public trust in politics, and that the system should be decided by the people through a referendum

-          It is imperative to have strong and stable government with authority to tackle challenges ahead and which can command the authority of Parliament.

-          The public do not like uncertainty or want it to be prolonged, pointing out that the outcome has been delivered by the electorate and it is now the Parties responsibility to make it work.

Key points from David Cameron’s statement at 2.45pm

-          The Conservatives have achieved a higher share of the vote than Labour achieved at the last election, and that they have achieved a bigger increase in seats than even Margaret Thatcher achieved in 1979.

-          Acknowledged that the Conservatives have to accept they have fallen short of an overall majority., but also that Britain needs strong, stable Government, and it is in the national interest that to get this on a secure basis.

-          Welcomed Nick Clegg’s comments this morning that as the largest party, the Conservatives should have the chance to form a Government, and said that  talks will now begin with other parties to see how this may be done.

-          One option may be a minority Government, without the country faced with the constant threat of its government falling. Prepared to consider going further, “I want to make a big open offer to the Liberal Democrats to work together to fix broken political system and economic problems”.

-          Recognised differences in policy do exist between the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats, such as on Europe, immigration and defence. It also did not appear he was too willing to cede too much ground on electoral reform.

-          It is reasonable to accept that the bulk of our policies in our manifesto should be implemented. Many policies are shared between the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats and can form the basis of strong collaborative Government. E.g. Pupil premium, a low carbon economy, reform of tax system, reversal of national insurance increase, protecting civil liberties, abolishing ID cards, reforming the electoral system

-          Compromise is part of working together in the national interest. Remains completely convinced that starting to deal with the deficit this year is essential.

-          Making a “Big open, comprehensive offer to Liberal Democrats”, where they can find ways to implement key planks of their manifesto, while also tackling the deficit, maintaining economic stability.

-          Strong stable government which lasts is essential for the UK. Important that we get this strong stable government quickly.

-          Had hoped for a Conservative majority, but want the best for Britain, and they will put the interests of the country first, and the best thing is a Government which works together.

Election 2010 has seen one of the highest ever numbers of new MPs elected.  Whichever colour of government is formed, some of the new faces will rise quickly within their parties. Here are some to watch:

Conservative

George Eustice MP – Camborne and Redruth

The Conservatives came from third place to win Camborne and Redruth from Liberal Democrat Julia Goldsworthy by just 66 votes.

Eustice is a former press secretary to David Cameron and Michael Howard, and before the election co-ordinated external relations at CCHQ.

Penny Mordaunt MP -  Portsmouth North

Portsmouth North, dominated by the defence industries, was won by Penny Mordaunt with an 8.6% swing away from Labour.

Mordaunt was Head of Broadcasting for the Tories under Hague. She has also served as Head of Foreign Press to President George Bush, and currently runs a London based Media Company.

Margot James MP – Stourbridge

This suburban Black Country seat, Labour since 1997, was won by the Conservatives with a swing of 6.9%.

James is Vice Chair of the Conservative Party for Women’s Issues. She co-founded a specialist public relations company, Shire Health, in 1986, which won awards from the pharma industry and was later sold to WPP. Ms James was appointed regional president for the pharmaceuticals division of Ogilvy & Mather in 2005.

Simon Hart MP – Carmarthen West & Pembrokeshire South

This was one of the Conservatives’ top Welsh targets, and was won with a 6.9% swing.

Simon Hart is Chief Executive of the Countryside Alliance. He previously worked as a chartered surveyor in Carmarthen and Haverfordwest for just over ten years and served with the Territorial Army for five.

Charlotte Leslie MP – Bristol North West

This suburban seat was seen as natural Tory territory, and was re-taken from the Lib Dems on a 8.9% swing.

Leslie has worked in the Conservatives’ public services policy group, and as an education advisor to David Willetts. She has edited the Bow Group’s magazine, and worked on BBC shows including the Weakest Link.   

Labour

Stephen Twigg MP – Liverpool West Derby  

Labour kept this rock solid seat with a majority of over 18,000.

Stephen Twigg was first a ‘rising star’ when he ousted Portillo in 1997.   After losing his Enfield Southgate seat in 2005 he became chairman of Progress and director of the Foreign Policy Centre.

Luciana Berger MP – Liverpool Wavertree  

A 5% swing from the Liberal Democrats increased Labour’s Merseyside grip.

28 year old Berger is a former student activist and director of Labour Friends of Israel.  She has also previously worked for the Commission for Racial Equality, management consultants Accenture, and the NHS Confederation.

Gloria De Piero MP - Ashfield

Labour held Geoff Hoon’s old seat despite a giant 17.2% swing to the Lib Dems.

De Piero was GMTV’s political correspondent before being selected. She worked for the Labour party during the 1997 election.

Liberal Democrat

 Stephen Lloyd MP – Eastbourne

Eastbourne was one of last night’s few Lib Dem gains, with a 4% swing from the Conservatives.  

Lloyd was selected in 2005 after a career in business.  He is now a governor of a local school and involved in numerous community groups.

Tessa Munt MP – Wells

The Lib Dems have been tenacious in their South West hub, winning Wells with a majority of just 800.

 Munt stood unsuccessfully for the Lib Dems in 2001 and 2005, but has finally been elected by defeating expenses-tainted Tory David Heathcoat-Amory.

Simon Wright MP – Norwich South

A win for the Liberal Democrats in their target seat number 24 ousted former Home Secretary Charles Clarke

 Wright was brought up in Norfolk, and has been a maths teacher in Norwich schools.  He has worked with health spokesman Norman Lamb.

Green

Caroline Lucas MP – Brighton Pavilion

Green leader Caroline Lucas has become the party’s first MP by winning Brighton Pavilion from Labour. Dr. Lucas has been an MEP since 1999.  She told the BBC that a hung parliament was an “interesting” result.  

Latest results

• 621 of 650 seats have now been called
• Conservatives have 291 seats and 36% of votes
• Labour have 251 seats and 29.3% of votes
• Liberal Democrats have 52 and 22.9% of votes

Just called

• Labour Minister Jim Fitzpatrick wins Poplar and Limehouse, defeating Respect candidate George Galloway
• Liberal Democrat frontbench spokesperson Sarah Teather  wins the new seat of Brent Central, defeating Labour’s Dawn Butler by almost 2000 votes
• Labour’s Minister Phil Woolas holds Oldham East and Saddleworth

Labour

• At 10.30am Prime Minister Gordon Brown  issued a statement where he left no doubt that he is not intending to step down as Prime Minister as a result of Labour losing its majority.
• Mr Brown said he had a duty as Prime Minister to “take all steps to ensure Britain has a strong, stable and principled government”.
• The Prime Minister also asked the head of the civil service to provide support to parties engaged in discussions on the formation of a government, paving the way for a coalition government.

Conservatives

• Speaking last night as the results were coming in, Cameron couldn’t yet claim victory but did say that the Government has lost its mandate to govern
• David Cameron is due to make a statement at 2.30pm at which he will explain how he intends to form a Government.

Liberal Democrats

• Nick Clegg has given a statement on the election results so far, where he said that the Conservatives, as the biggest party should have the first right to form a Government.
• Arriving at Liberal Democrat headquarters in London, Clegg commented:  “Whatever party gets most votes and seats if not necessarily an overall majority must have first right to form a Government. This morning this is the Conservatives. It is now for the Conservative party that it is capable of seeking to govern in the national interest”.

We do not need to tell you what the headlines are, save that, on current forecasts, our prediction of 311 seats for the Conservatives was four out, with the Party reckoned to get 307 MPs. But what does the morning bring for the leaders as the weekend’s strategising gets underway in earnest and what does that mean for business?

For David Cameron’s Conservatives, the strategy from 2200 last night has been to say Labour have lost and that they are the party with the true claim to govern on the basis of share of the vote and number of seats.

Except that, as we know, the PM stays in post until or unless he resigns or loses a substantive vote in the House of Commons, for example the Queen’s Speech.

The Tory claim is also curious for a Conservative Party that might be expected to respect constitutional conventions. And arguing the toss on share of the vote when you are opposed to PR lacks a little logical integrity.

The further problem is that the Party is still the one dominated by the south east of England. It is dangerous for the Union to seek to govern the UK without a mandate in Scotland and with a paucity of representation in Wales. Their official Unionist partners in Ulster had a bad night, and striking a deal with the DUP will create instability in the devolution settlement.

On the plus side, the Party has secured some spectacular and impressive wins, there is a new and dynamic intake, and the energy to govern is on its side.

For Gordon Brown, the pain of seeing so many Labour seats fall – especially in those Midlands and Lancashire battlegrounds – will have been real. The Party has suffered a serious loss of support and it is only some furious campaigning on the ground that has saved key seats like Exeter, Telford and Tooting from the Tory tide.

The mantra since the polls closed has been the need to reform the voting system (and the chaos at some polling stations will add another dimension to those calls as we now have our own version of the ‘dimpled chad’ election in the US) and to work together with the Lib Dems on a common agenda for fiscal stability and securing the recovery.

What deal is put on the table. If Labour are smart they will lace it with tricks like seats in the Cabinet for Clegg, Cable (a great asset) and the astute bridge between the parties, Lord McNally, formerly of this parish.

If the Party is sectarian and parsimonious, Clegg may well just walk away.

For Clegg, it was a night of horror, where the vice-like grip of First Past The Post was all too evidence as was the struggle to fight for seats with limited resources against a wealthy and slick. Conservative machine.

But the loss of seats and worse than expected performance heaps the pressure on Clegg to do a deal with Labour that will unlock PR and release the Party from the chains on FPTP. It is a fundamental objective of the Party – will he reach for it now and on what conditions?

For business and the markets, the weekend’s negotiations represent a further bout of uncertainty. In any event, there will be pressure for a Government to be formed within a week and certainly in time for preparations for the Queen’s Speech, slated for Tuesday 25 May. The new Parliament will meet for the first time on Tuesday 18 May 2010, a week before the Queen’s Speech. Parliament’s first job will be to elect a new Speaker. Members are sworn in on the following Wednesday, Thursday and Monday.

Watch this space…

After a mamouth general election campaign and one of the closest political battles in years, we have finally arrived. Get your stats, maps, constituency guides and popcorn, settle down and enjoy a night of television made for the political junkies!

So what have been some of the highlights?

Undoubtedly the leaders debates have proved a hit with the voting electorate and will almost certainly be around for many general election campaigns to come.

The meteoric rise of Nick Clegg and the Liberal Democrats is another of the major stories of the election. For the first time in a long time we have a genuine 3-horse race, and but for a cock-eyed electoral system the Liberal Democrats may well have been in a better position still.

The leaders personalities have been at the heart of this campaign. Is Cameron too policy light? Is Brown to heavy handed? Is Clegg the happy medium? Never before has an election campaign been so reliant on the man at the top.

And of course we have had the odd gaffe here and there. How much do you think Brown regrets his momentary lapse of concentration where he called a Rochdale grandma a ‘bigoted woman’ in the back of his car?

As we head into election night, the 2010 election will certainly be remembered. The polls seem to point towards a hung parliament, but with reported large turnout will we see a Conservative majority? Are the Liberal Democrats’ polling numbers holding firm? Or has there been a traditional swingback to the governing Labour party?

So many questions. Now it is time for the answers.

Sit back and enjoy!

Campaigning for the Lib Dems in Cornwall (Rick Stein territory), I’ve seen a few monster Tory stakeboards in farmers’ fields dotted about, but I’m surprised to see not a single Conservative poster in one of the largest towns in the constituency. That doesn’t mean there aren’t any elsewhere however, such as where there are more second home owners, but I thought there would be more.

But even as I passed the local Conservative club earlier today, The Churchill Bar – serves hot and cold food, big screen TV, families welcome – it sounded as if the regulars weren’t certain about who was going to get in either.

Chatting to local campaigners here, nobody’s letting themselves believe the media hype following the leaders debate. It will all be about getting the vote out on the day. So, we were out in force earlier, the eve of poll leaflets are going out, and it will be an early start tomorrow morning.

Just less than 28 hours before close of polls and a sit down.

Tweetminster has released its final prediction ahead of the big day – and its model forecasts a hung parliament with Labour the largest party but short of a majority.

Of the 433 constituencies now mentioned on Twitter, the Tweetminster model looks at mentions of candidates and puts:

Conservatives on 35%

Labour on 30%

Lib Dems on 27%

Plugging these figures into the BBC website it looks like Labour would be 41 seats short of a majority:

Does this this kind of forecasting work? We’ll find out on Friday…

 Voters pick their parties largely due to what they read, hear and see in the media.  The parties have few opportunities to talk directly to voters; leaflets often go straight in the bin, candidates can’t possibly meet all their prospective constituents, and even fewer get to see the party leaders in person.

But which type of media is relied on?  Before the campaign began, 2010 was billed as the first internet election, particularly (predictably) by bloggers. Twitter has claimed a few scalps; Labour candidate Stuart MacLennan and Tory Philip Lardner have been sacked for unwise postings, and ‘twitter csar’ Kerry McCarthy has got into hot water for broadcasting early postal vote results. More positively, Ed Balls’ Tory opponent has used a very entertaining online video to raise ‘Obama style’ small donations.

However most of the public will have heard about these incidents, if at all, offline. Guido Fawkes (and of course the Weber Shandwick Election Blog!) may be a must read inside the Westminster Village, but most voters will have spent the weekend with the Sunday papers, not the blogs.

Ever since ‘the Sun won it’ for the Conservatives in 1992, newspapers have often been seen as prime opinion formers. However this time round it seems far more likely that the papers follow their readers’ views, rather than form them. The Sun didn’t officially declare its support for the Conservatives until long after Cameron’s star was in ascendance.  The Guardian and Observer waited until last weekend to come out in favour of the Liberal Democrats, several weeks after the polls began to show ‘progressive’ opinion heading in that direction.  The FT has just today declared its support for the Conservatives, when its City readership made up their minds long ago.

TV has been by far the most influential medium in 2010. The debates have introduced Nick Clegg to the public, and dominated discussion for days.  The pre-campaign ‘soft’ interviews Brown gave to Piers Morgan and Cameron gave to Trevor McDonald performed the incredible feat of making them seem half-human. Even ‘bigotgate’ was dominated by the spectacle of an hour’s live coverage of a Rochdale front door.

TV has this role as it gets the public more close than any other medium to the party leaders.  In our increasingly presidential system this matters more than any amount of interaction with local candidates.  The TV lets people feel that they have had a direct interaction with the leaders, particularly with Nick Clegg’s trademark – and slightly spooky -  tactic of staring intensely into the camera.  We don’t get such a feeling of personality by reading a leader’s ghost-written newspaper opinion piece, and we know that any newspaper article will be tinged by the paper’s own views.  

It’s also simply more entertaining to watch Brown and Cameron speak movingly about their families, or go three rounds with Paxman, than to wade through detailed policy arguments. Perhaps our national TV obsession is not due to our search for politicians’ personality, but a search for instant entertainment. I wonder if turnout would be higher if we could vote with the red button!

It has been a tough week! No member of the Labour Party could claim to be over-the-moon with how the campaign has gone over the past few days. But we can be proud that we are still fighting, on a progressive agenda, for the future of the country – and the polls suggest that it is all still to play for.

Cameron must be wondering what exactly he has to do to get the substantive lead he needs for a comfortable majority. Following Gordon’s gaffe in Rochdale, Cameron’s strong performance at the 3rd debate, and the even more agressive Tory campaign from the British media – even I am beginning to wonder! But at the end of the day, if you dont have a coherent and convincing programme for government, the British people wont be fooled.

The Clegg bubble is beginning to burst. As soon as his policies came under scrutiny, challenged by both Camerion and Brown, support has been ebbing away. The Liberals have had a good election campaign, no-one can demy that, but it has been much more style than substance – a shiny new toy that the British electorate enjoyed playing with for a while, but now realise that it is not robust. Once you shake it about, it breaks, and if your not careful you can get hurt.

Marina Hyde poses and interesting quesiton abour whether the British public really want change – read it here: http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/apr/30/cameron-election-no-real-change

On a seperate note, I want to congratulate my husband, Joe Goldberg, on a great performance against Cameron at the Witney hustings on Friday night. The debate was robust and Goldberg managed to knock Cameron gently on the chin a couple of times on issues such as inheritance tax, protecting frontline services, and the consistency of the tory frontbrench. To be fair, Cameron was very gracious and performed well in front of his home crowd. My fave line of the night came in the closing statements when a Christian member of the audience asked why each of the candidates deserved her vote. The response from Joe was: “If you love your neighbour, then vote Labour. they are the only party who will protect jobs, frontline services etc etc” He got a good laugh, and a big round of applause. I have to say, I couldn’t agree with him more!